Friday, November 22, 2013

Cardboard Commentary #36 (Double Rookie Class... Too Many RCs?)

This hockey season the card companies are making a big deal out of the amount of rookie cards available to collectors, but I wonder if it is too much of a good thing. Sure, we all know the big name rookie cards to get this year... but are these big names the real deal? From what I've seen, rookie card prices haven't been as high as in years past.

To me, these are the top rookie cards to get this season: Tomas Hertl (Hah, I've got to list him first as he's the top rookie scorer and, well, someone has to have a west coast bias!), Nathan Mackinnon, Nail Yakupov, Alex Galchenyuk, Jonathan Huberdeau, Seth Jones, Vladamir Tarasenko, and Sean Monahan. There might be one or two more, feel free to point out anyone significant I have left out.

If I'm looking at Young Gun values... I'm scratching my head at why they seem so low. The biggest money maker right now in terms of Young Guns is Nathan Mackinnon. Looking up ending eBay auctions, his YG is selling between $45-$50. Nobody else is even really close to that. The next two rookie cards in terms of value are Hertl and Yakupov, who both sell for $20, give or take. Everyone else is a notch even lower than that.

So what gives? In 2011/12, we had Ryan Nugent-Hopkins going for much more than Mackinnon is going for now. In 2010/11, Taylor Hall was the one selling for an obscene price when first released. The year before that saw John Tavares going for a high amount. Why is it that those years produced Young Gun cards that held such high values?

I wonder if there are just too many 'good' rookie to get. It might be something like a 'watered-down' effect where people just can't spend the money on one big name. They have to spread out their money in many directions thus lowering the individual rookie card prices. Or maybe there aren't any rookies this year that stand out as much as the afore mentioned rookies did.

I'm not sure. Whatever the reason, this crop of rookie cards just doesn't have the impact that we all thought it would have. Have you noticed the same thing? For me personally, when I pull a known rookie commodity from this class I'm not overly excited about it. I remember being genuinely excited getting a Hall YG out of a pack. I'm just not sure I'd feel the same way if I got Mackinnon... or even *gasp* Hertl!

Maybe the season is still young, and the bigger sets like SPA and the like will give us some big time rookie cards to get.

I'd love to know what you think of how the values of the rookies this year are doing! What have you noticed! Let me know in the comments section!


  1. I agree with you about the feeling I get when I pull the young guns. When I first heard about the double rookie class I was very excited. I quickly pre ordered a case for myself at my local cardshop. When I went to open it the first box I opened I got a Hertl and I was happy a few packs later I got a Yakupov and I just was not as happy as I thought I would be because a Hertl in say 08-09 would be a major hit and anything else would be meh.

    I feel the double rookie class is really cool because there are so many but its not the same wow factor when you pull the cards because there are so many good players.

    I get happy when I pull one of their Canvas YG's because it is much harder it feels more like the past when you get one its a major hit if that makes sense.

    So long story short the double class is making it less fun to pull the big players but the canvas is making up for it because its so much harder. PLUS the Hertly YG Canvas of between the legs is amazing looking card. I hope you get it or have it , it is a piece of art work that is for sure.

    Ryan Davis

  2. I think you nailed it in the head. With so many good rookies (Hertl, Mackinnon, Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Huberdeau, Jones, Tarasenko, Monahan) if I get one in my box my reaction wouldn't be the same as if I got RNH or Landeskog because they were the only 2 huge rookies in series 1 two years ago. I bought 2 boxes and hit some huge rookies but I felt like I had to hit someone good. It was still awesome, and it still feels like hitting the jackpot. Sucks that ebay values them so low though.


  3. Hey Luke,

    I tried finding a way to contact you, but in the end I settled for a comment here. I figured you'd find this interesting, and wanted to share it with you because I think it'll help draw people's attention if you'd post something about this:

    I'm starting a new project for my collection tomorrow. I'll purchase three packs of UD series 1 13-14, and I hope to be able to trade my way up to high-end cards over the course of a year. Every trade and every card will be posted on my blog.

    My intention is to spend a year doing this, and then sell the entire collection and give the money to a charity that fights Childhood Cancer.

    The adress to the blog is:

    Thanks for your time!

  4. Yeah. I have to agree here. A few to many rookies. You may have left out Dougie Hamilton, Barkov, and Schultz. But also dont forget dominion is coming out on the 6th which should be huge.

  5. UD also really increased the print run of Series 1, which I think has been the biggest factor. Although print run numbers are hard to find, just look at the UD Exclusives. They are #/100 and used to come one per box, now I believe they are case hits, or at least a couple per case. Since the base set is no different, we're getting probably between 4 and 8 times more cards, therefore more YGs and lower prices.